Naomi Osaka v Katerina Siniakova
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Tennis·WTA US Open· 2026-09-03 · 15:00

Naomi Osaka v Katerina Siniakova

Recommended bet
Naomi Osaka
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketHigh
Win probability73%
Implied (with margin)78%
Model edge-5.5%
Odds1.29 2/7
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Naomi Osaka77%
Katerina Siniakova24%
$89,895 liquidity · $483 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Naomi Osaka holds serve 75% of games vs Katerina Siniakova's 64%
  • Katerina Siniakova double-faults on 6% of serve points vs Naomi Osaka's 4%
  • Naomi Osaka serves aces on 8% of points vs Katerina Siniakova's 3%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Naomi Osaka to win63%1.60—
Katerina Siniakova to win37%2.68—
Match Winner — Katerina Siniakova—4.40—
Match Winner — Naomi Osaka—1.30—