Nikola Bartunkova v Aryna Sabalenka
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Tennis·WTA China Open· 2026-10-04 · 03:00

Nikola Bartunkova v Aryna Sabalenka

Recommended bet
Aryna Sabalenka
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketHigh
Win probability84%
Implied (with margin)85%
Model edge-1.7%
Odds1.17 1/6
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Nikola Bartunkova14%
Aryna Sabalenka86%
$50,525 liquidity · $7,326 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Aryna Sabalenka holds serve 79% of games vs Nikola Bartunkova's 65%
  • Nikola Bartunkova wins only 44% of 2nd-serve points (Aryna Sabalenka: 51%)
  • Nikola Bartunkova double-faults on 6% of serve points vs Aryna Sabalenka's 4%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Aryna Sabalenka to win84%1.19—
Nikola Bartunkova to win16%6.25—
Match Winner — Aryna Sabalenka—1.19—
Match Winner — Nikola Bartunkova—5.60—