Novak Djokovic v Daniil Medvedev
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Tennis·ATP China Open· 2026-10-05 · 11:00

Novak Djokovic v Daniil Medvedev

Recommended bet
Daniil Medvedev
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability53%
Implied (with margin)58%
Model edge-9.6%
Odds1.72 8/11
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Novak Djokovic42%
Daniil Medvedev59%
$27,634 liquidity · $2,159 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Daniil Medvedev wins only 49% of 2nd-serve points (Novak Djokovic: 55%)
  • Daniil Medvedev double-faults on 5% of serve points vs Novak Djokovic's 3%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Novak Djokovic to win65%1.54—
Daniil Medvedev to win35%2.86—
Match Winner — Daniil Medvedev—1.72—
Match Winner — Novak Djokovic—2.36—