Sebastian Baez v Mattia Bellucci
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Tennis·ATP Canadian Open· 2026-08-03 · 15:00

Sebastian Baez v Mattia Bellucci

Recommended bet
Sebastian Baez
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability53%
Implied (with margin)54%
Model edge-2.9%
Odds1.84 5/6
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Sebastian Baez53%
Mattia Bellucci48%
$28,830 liquidity · $1,210 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Mattia Bellucci double-faults on 4% of serve points vs Sebastian Baez's 2%
  • Sebastian Baez wins 39% of return points vs Mattia Bellucci's 35%
  • Mattia Bellucci serves aces on 9% of points vs Sebastian Baez's 3%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Sebastian Baez to win54%1.86—
Mattia Bellucci to win46%2.16—
Match Winner — Mattia Bellucci—2.05—
Match Winner — Sebastian Baez—1.85—