Sebastian Baez v Mattia Bellucci
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Tennis·ATP Canadian Open· 2026-08-04 · 19:30

Sebastian Baez v Mattia Bellucci

Recommended bet
Sebastian Baez
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability52%
Implied (with margin)52%
Model edge+0.3%
Odds1.93 10/11
Why the model leans this way
  • Mattia Bellucci double-faults on 4% of serve points vs Sebastian Baez's 2%
  • Sebastian Baez wins 39% of return points vs Mattia Bellucci's 35%
  • Mattia Bellucci serves aces on 9% of points vs Sebastian Baez's 3%
Best valueSebastian Baez+3.8% EV@ 1.93highest expected value — the hero above is the most likely to land
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Sebastian Baez to win54%1.86
Mattia Bellucci to win46%2.16
Match Winner — Mattia Bellucci2.06
Match Winner — Sebastian Baez1.93