Tatjana Maria v Jelena Ostapenko
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Tennis·WTA US Open· 2026-09-01 · 16:40

Tatjana Maria v Jelena Ostapenko

Recommended bet
Jelena Ostapenko
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketMed
Win probability63%
Implied (with margin)61%
Model edge+3.6%
Odds1.64 8/13
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Tatjana Maria40%
Jelena Ostapenko61%
$38,274 liquidity · $572 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Jelena Ostapenko double-faults on 7% of serve points vs Tatjana Maria's 4%
  • Jelena Ostapenko wins 45% of return points vs Tatjana Maria's 42%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Jelena Ostapenko to win70%1.43—
Tatjana Maria to win30%3.30—
Match Winner — Jelena Ostapenko—1.64—
Match Winner — Tatjana Maria—2.50—