Tennis·ATP US Open· 2026-09-02 · 15:00

Tomas Martin Etcheverry v Jacob Fearnley

Recommended bet

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Match winner

De-vigged fair price from the marketMed

Win probability59%

Implied (with margin)56%

Model edge+5.4%

Odds1.78 4/5

Crowd odds — Polymarket

Tomas Martin Etcheverry56%

Jacob Fearnley45%

$108,748 liquidity · $1,600 traded · data from Polymarket

Why the model leans this way

Tomas Martin Etcheverry holds serve 82% of games vs Jacob Fearnley's 75%
Jacob Fearnley wins only 47% of 2nd-serve points (Tomas Martin Etcheverry: 52%)
Jacob Fearnley double-faults on 7% of serve points vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry's 2%

All markets

Match winnerProbOddsEdge

Tomas Martin Etcheverry to win70%1.43—

Jacob Fearnley to win30%3.31—

Match Winner — Jacob Fearnley—2.24—

Match Winner — Tomas Martin Etcheverry—1.82—