Ugo Humbert v Daniel Merida Aguilar
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Tennis·ATP Canadian Open· 2026-08-05 · 20:00

Ugo Humbert v Daniel Merida Aguilar

Recommended bet
Ugo Humbert
Match winner
De-vigged fair price from the marketHigh
Win probability66%
Implied (with margin)72%
Model edge-8.4%
Odds1.38 4/11
Crowd odds — Polymarket
Ugo Humbert72%
Daniel Merida Aguilar28%
$6,862 liquidity · $107 traded · data from Polymarket
Why the model leans this way
  • Ugo Humbert holds serve 84% of games vs Daniel Merida Aguilar's 75%
  • Daniel Merida Aguilar wins only 47% of 2nd-serve points (Ugo Humbert: 53%)
  • Daniel Merida Aguilar wins 39% of return points vs Ugo Humbert's 35%
All markets
Match winnerProbOddsEdge
Ugo Humbert to win53%1.88—
Daniel Merida Aguilar to win47%2.14—
Match Winner — Daniel Merida Aguilar—3.25—
Match Winner — Ugo Humbert—1.38—